Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1837
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 23:05:19

ACUS11 KWNS 042305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042304=20
MOZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585...

Valid 042304Z - 050030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585
continues.

SUMMARY...A local corridor of heightened tornado potential may
present itself over the next 1-2 hours across central Missouri ahead
of an eastward-migrating MCV.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a diffuse warm front draped
to the east/southeast of an MCV slowly migrating across central MO.
Recent analyses show a buoyancy gradient along this boundary, which
may act as a preferential zone for cell propagation. While
near-surface winds are weak (generally 10 knots or less), backed
flow along the boundary may support sufficient low-level helicity to
support a robust mesocyclone with an attendant tornado threat. While
very conditional, recent imagery from KEAX shows a few storms
already developing supercellular characteristics. Upscale growth
beyond the next 2 hours will limit the tornado potential, but a
near-term threat may present itself within WW 585.

...Moore.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-9CcwyvCnwB9zxGwZTM2gGZkq4I3oM_v8YwuWOuLBGeuhDsDQmCU2wV8u5ubKhl3CWybHPRcC=
GrxNUlzxo7OkPJ1bTw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38999284 39029320 39059351 39369389 39589390 39759378
            39919347 39879279 39729242 39459241 39179242 39069257
            38999284=20


=3D =3D =3D
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