Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1836
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 22:51:51

ACUS11 KWNS 042251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042251=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042251Z - 050045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible over the next hour
or so as a broken line of storm approaches the FL coast. Watch
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms moving south/southeast across
southern AL has shown signs of gradual intensification over the past
1-2 hours. Thus far, weak winds through the vertical column have
limited storm intensity/organization with a maximum measured wind
speed of 42 knots. Concurrently, a second line of storms has
intensified over northern FL after a favorable sea-breeze
interaction. A favorable downstream environment featuring 2000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE, PWAT values near 1.75 inches, and 8-8.5 C/km low-level
lapse rates may support strong water-loaded downdrafts with the more
intense updrafts within both of these lines over the next 1-2 hours.
Consequently, sporadic damaging winds will be possible as these
storms approach the FL coast. Given the limited nature of the
threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

...Moore/Mosier.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wuDjl-pfZ6DsmI0caEAiJX-m-Ge9G94KNsygd7n52TnVT_jB3r64AefS0V50brfZ2v4Pcjae=
ObOcrIFdLcr4cH_SxM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31118706 31388639 31718587 31818563 31578489 31008392
            30558311 30348287 29838258 29548274 29328314 29728385
            29808421 29658467 29538501 29668552 29958590 30238650
            30368698 30448703 31118706=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.