Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1835
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 22:13:48

ACUS11 KWNS 042213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042213=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-050015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into the New England region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584...

Valid 042213Z - 050015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 584, and may extend
into portions of southern/southeastern Pennsylvania over the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue to
develop along the cold frontal boundary draped across the New
England region. Recent GOES imagery shows transient nature of some
cells, possibly due to undercutting outflow from prior convection,
but cooling cloud top temperatures in IR imagery as well as tight
clustering of in-cloud lightning with developing storms suggest
robust convection remains possible. Recent GOES-derived winds and
cloud heights suggest that 40-50 knot anvil-level winds, combined
with weaker low-level flow, continue to  support nearly 30 knots of
deep-layer shear orthogonal to the frontal axis. Given adequate
buoyancy over the region, this will maintain the potential for
additional discrete convection (including a few supercells) prior to
the onset of stronger nocturnal stabilization later this evening.
The approach of a 300 mb jet max into the Mid-Atlantic region will
augment broad-scale ascent across eastern PA, and may allow for the
severe threat to continue towards the MD border. Portions of WW 584
have been extended to address this concern, but further downstream
watch issuance is uncertain given a diminishing thermodynamic
environment towards the coast and the influence of nocturnal cooling
in the coming hours.

...Moore.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-gbCxuADpIHUn9WONlTxJrYf3hO06cUqu-P8fO7M0DIINKC9WU98TecpWkPCeO-xJfVTrc--E=
k0Iu1_WnPlnfGCB6Ng$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40407899 41147793 42727542 44077236 43997176 43797107
            43387101 42537170 40797447 39737588 39657664 39667790
            39747879 39877906 40117915 40407899=20


=3D =3D =3D
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