Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1834
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 21:53:21

ACUS11 KWNS 042153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042152=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-042315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Western NE...Northeast CO...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042152Z - 042315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and localized severe gusts may
increase into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity late this afternoon from northeast CO into western NE, to
the south of a upper-level cyclone over the northern High Plains. A
surface low is located near over far southeast MT, with a surface
trough extending southeastward toward the NE Sandhills region, and
then southwestward toward the NE Panhandle. A secondary low-level
confluence zone is noted over northeast CO. Storms will likely
continue to increase near these surface features and spread eastward
into this evening.=20

Moderate buoyancy and modest effective shear (generally 25-35 kt)
will support a mix of strong multicells and perhaps a marginal
supercell or two, with an initial threat of isolated hail and severe
gusts. An outflow-driven cluster may eventually evolve and move
somewhere across northern KS/southern NE later this evening, with at
least an isolated severe-wind threat.=20

While the environment is not particularly favorable for longer-lived
supercells or a well-organized MCS, watch issuance is possible given
the potential for increasing coverage of storms with at least some
severe hail/wind threat into this evening.

...Dean/Mosier.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4QalHhv6AXi7WXwcy_6cpZpp0FNFBwk2P6IFksdNGyh1lkT1zblaEA9FbbwbK3akBUFhNP4E0=
KqvsO0DBAkGtDF7GYg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41230285 42220161 42550102 42860046 42619993 42119972
            40889983 40020039 39140135 38870153 38670241 39000344
            41230285=20


=3D =3D =3D
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