Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1833
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 20:23:20

ACUS11 KWNS 042023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042022=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota into the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042022Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short-term threat exists across portions of the central
High Plains for isolated severe hail/wind, with a relatively higher
severe threat possible later this afternoon/evening. A WW issuance
is unlikely in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Increasing lightning trends (via NLDN) and the depth of
convective cores (i.e. MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing 30 dBZ
cores exceeding 45 kft) suggest that thunderstorms may be increasing
across portions of the central High Plains. Ahead of the
intensifying storms, surface temperatures are warming into the mid
80s F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints (based on current
observations), boosting MLCAPE to 1500+ J/kg. 20Z mesoanalysis shows
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear
overspreading the central High Plains, suggesting that the severe
threat should remain isolated over the next few hours. A couple
instances of severe hail/wind are the main concerns. The severe
threat should appreciably increase late this afternoon/evening as a
low-level jet develops. In the meantime, a WW issuance is unlikely
given the shorter-term, isolated severe threat.

...Squitieri/Goss.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4T7jLKsFEEHG5m5MMYT-ZEwzJZHBtn6_BoAZM8Sy621mPVitLYUmKuqkaxaU72Y-tDd_fY6n3=
8RaBBdq8f9MjsDiSeU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40970388 43140362 44070326 45010183 44940119 44340068
            43470095 42280162 41560204 41010303 40970388=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.