Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1831
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 18:49:50

ACUS11 KWNS 041849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041849=20
PAZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...central and northeast PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584...

Valid 041849Z - 042045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584
continues.

SUMMARY...A mesoscale corridor for stronger thunderstorms within
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #584 may focus downstream of the storms
over central into northeast PA for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar/visible-satellite imagery mosaic shows a broken
band of strong to locally severe cellular storms from northern PA
southwestward into central PA.  Surface analysis shows the
thunderstorms near or immediately ahead of the primary wind shift.=20
Surface temperatures over central PA --where low clouds eroded
earlier compared to eastern PA-- have warmed to near 80 deg F
whereas slightly cooler temperatures are in eastern PA.  Heating
prior to the band of storms' arrival will further steepen low-level
lapse rates and aid in destabilization.  Analysis of the Binghamton,
NY 88D VAD shows some increase in flow from 25-35 kt in the 6-8 km
AGL layer to 35-50 kt during the past 3 hours.  This increase in mid
to upper-level flow will aid in storm organization.  As such, a
severe risk with locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible with the stronger storms over the next couple of hours
from the Delaware River southwestward into central PA.

...Smith.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_QzhSJB-NbURL_qlm31wAkD6AkjGwDg2LRylf3Z72rJExGJykcbNAmaeO45fHEelXxfb9-zaF=
f1qBquWp4DrO1qFl6Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40817787 41777595 41697528 41487506 41247509 40527654
            40467705 40627755 40817787=20


=3D =3D =3D
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