Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1830
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 15:21:47

ACUS11 KWNS 041521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041521=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-041715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...central and northeast PA...far northern
NJ...central and eastern NY...northwest CT...western MA...VT...NH

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 041521Z - 041715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
with isolated gusts in the 45-60 mph range that will be potentially
capable of wind damage.  Isolated large hail (diameter 1 to 1.5
inches) is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows an
extensive stratus deck across much of eastern PA northeastward
through eastern NY and into southern New England.  A bubbling
cumulus field is located farther west from near the Finger Lakes
into the Adirondacks.=20=20

Surface observations show temperatures rising into the low to mid
70s in areas void of thicker stratus and ongoing thunderstorm
activity over central NY into VT/NH.  The 12 UTC Buffalo raob showed
1900 J/kg MUCAPE with moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid to
high-level flow.  The initial storms near the front/composite wind
shift have developed over far northern NY.  Expecting additional
storms to develop south/southeast of Buffalo in parts of western NY
and northwest PA in the next 1-2 hours in a destabilizing airmass.=20
Scattered to numerous storms are likely by mid afternoon in the form
of one or more broken bands of cells as this activity pushes east
across the region.  The stronger storms will be capable of peak
gusts primarily in the 45-60 mph range, which will probably result
in widely scattered wind damage with the stronger cores.  Large hail
may accompany the stronger updrafts with max hail size forecast in
the 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter range.

...Smith.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4p8wr5UYd_4zgNLyMt9qm_fh-PtFsPo0KQSZ5x_QNYPf0_jWxUrFsRdpAeVXDhmreNuUDiutY=
X-Qcd1PE938w2_nyt8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41017929 41787891 44477412 44337275 44077176 43407106
            42727111 40227591 40187671 40267839 41017929=20


=3D =3D =3D
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