Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 09:01:46

ACUS48 KWNS 040901
SWOD48
SPC AC 040900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4...
Severe potential remains evident on Monday as the upper-level trough
and associated surface cold front continue moving east/northeast,
interacting with a moist/moderately unstable air mass in the
presence of sufficient shear for organized storms. Strong/damaging
gusts should be the primary severe hazard, although all severe
hazards will be possible.

....Tuesday/Day 5 and Beyond...
In the wake of the departure of the upper trough over the northeast
on Monday, a broad west/northwesterly mid-level flow pattern will
prevail over much of the CONUS north of an expansive ridge over the
southern U.S. By late in the week, another upper trough may amplify
as it approaches the northern Plains/Great Lakes.

Strong/severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday
in the vicinity of a front across the central/southern Plains and
Ozarks, however confidence in the location of greater coverage
warranting a 15 percent severe probability for either day remains
too low with this outlook.

Towards the end of week, some strong/severe potential may exist as
the next upper trough approaches the north-central U.S. and a
surface front moves east in tandem with the trough. The degree of
destabilization remains in question at this extended range.

...Bunting.. 08/04/2023

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