Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 08:42:48

AWUS01 KWNH 040842
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-041345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0855
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 AM EDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040840Z - 041345Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms shift east-northeast from
central Kansas into the mid-morning. Cell mergers and repeating
cells should result in hourly totals of 1-2" with possible
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...An MCS with a multi-cell cluster in advance over
north-central KS is depicted over regional NEXRAD early this
morning. Southwesterly low level flow will continue to provide
moisture to an axis of 1.9 to 2.1" PW extending east from the apex
of the bow. The bowing MCS itself has been progressive and has
mainly provided beneficial rain to the drought stricken parts of
west-central Kansas. However, the increased duration of heavy rain
from the activity ahead of the line (and threat for it to continue
given the moisture axis) brings a localized flash flood threat
across the rest of northeast Kansas, including the KC metro,
through mid-morning.

Recent HRRRs have underdone the current depiction of the activity,
resulting in QPF that is too low. Given the ingredients, a risk
for 1-2" per hour is likely to continue. Most FFG over northeast
KS is under 2", so flash flooding is possible.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6jSfBBC7zVXilohu2p-P6krffvlVBlABLhZLAX9VqeAeikqK_px-LbMiqvka_rqpaayE=
JPIXbMGDIWcmf3ciu3LxDqg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39989599 39819505 38769468 38039573 37889705=20
            38439862 39069865 39529894 39979803=20

=3D =3D =3D
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