Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1829
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 08:20:45

ACUS11 KWNS 040820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040820=20
KSZ000-041015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583...

Valid 040820Z - 041015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will continue over the next
couple of hours, but should become more isolated with time. New
weather watch issuance is unlikely to the east of WW 583.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Wichita shows an MCS over
west-central Kansas extending northward into west-central Nebraska.
The MCS is tracking eastward along a east-to-west corridor of
moderate instability, Where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000
to 2000 J/kg range. Large-scale ascent, associated with a central
Plains shortwave trough, will likely keep storms going for most of
the night near the instability axis. RAP forecast soundings near the
instability axis across central Kansas have 0-6 km shear in the 20
to 30 knot range. This, combined with strengthening low-level flow
should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat this morning.
However, decreasing instability should make any severe threat very
isolated, especially towards daybreak.

...Broyles.. 08/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9l-e40o1pl5jt8Ucu2cgXQQxO0ZGT8TCtU2rFm2ysOf9OPVB5ogYTi-MhtXVRIKjx_THbkm8I=
R47tdjM49h1J37v05I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37969794 37839694 37709616 37609576 37659530 38109496
            38839479 39429498 39709579 39859653 39949780 39679849
            39069865 38199853 37969794=20


=3D =3D =3D
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