Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 05:58:47

ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central
Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on
Saturday. Damaging gusts and large hail will be primary severe
weather hazards.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern Plains will move
east-southeast Saturday, accompanied by a belt of seasonably strong
mid-level flow over the central Plains. An upper trough over Quebec
Province and New England will lift northeast during the day.
Expansive upper-level high pressure will extend from the central
Gulf Coast into the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. Surface low
pressure will move east from southeast SD to southern MN as a
trailing cold front moves east across the central Plains.

....Central/southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across KS/MO,
with a convectively-induced baroclinic zone possible in the vicinity
of the KS/OK border in the wake of early day storms. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE developing in advance of the
cold front, and 30-40 kt westerly mid-level flow will be sufficient
for organized storms. Thunderstorm development is expected near the
front from eastern CO north east across southeast SD as CINH weakens
and ascent with the approaching upper trough overspreads the area.
Both supercell and multicell storm modes are likely with a risk for
damaging gusts and large hail. Some tornado risk may exist near the
surface low Saturday afternoon with a more discrete storm in the
presence of locally higher low-level shear and lower LCL heights.
With time, storms should evolve into an organized MCS over western
KS vicinity aided by warm/moist advection with a modest
nocturnally-increasing low-level jet. An increase in severe
probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks in this area as
the impacts from early day storms are more fully assessed.

...Bunting.. 08/04/2023

$$

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