Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 04 2023 02:58:13

AWUS01 KWNH 040258
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-040845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0853
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...Kansas into Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040256Z - 040845Z

SUMMARY...High Plains activity shifts east into low level flow
overnight. Cell mergers and repeating cells should result in
sub-hourly to hourly totals of 1-2.5" should continue to induce
localized flash flooding instances overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered lines of heavy thunderstorms over eastern
CO into the Neb Panhandle will push east tonight given 15kt WSWly
deep layer flow. However, the southerly low level jet increasing
over the southern Plains this evening curves cyclonically over a
stationary front over southern KS, providing easterly inflow of
abundant moisture and instability to this activity as it pushes
into KS.

Given deeper southwesterly flow aloft in combination with easterly
inflow, forward propagation is likely to be quick supporting cell
motions over 15-30kts. Recent HRRR runs do not start with enough
activity compared to current regional NEXRAD, but are in agreement
with advancing development and a continued risk for 1.5-2.5"
hourly rainfall. FFG is generally under 2"/hr through northwest KS
and southwest Neb, so instances of repeating cells, mergers, and
bookends of these bowing linear segments creates a risk for
localized flash flooding to continue rest of the overnight.

Southwest KS has missed out on rain over the past week and while
the stationary front is parked there, most activity is expected to
be well north of the front.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7zppkvMjJ40T8hCPp8UZdlkCuQT6WMIeQ9ejNCEWI7Phh_Lm_M5QrAv46ggyaWyefcLq=
SKgfsVoWFeYIf3IApNCy5oI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41400205 41230151 41210106 41020033 40579893=20
            39609715 38289727 37540023 38010239 38420254=20
            39140259 40420280 41380268=20

=3D =3D =3D
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