Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 23:58:13

AWUS01 KWNH 032358
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-040515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0851
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...Northern WY...Southeast MT...Adj portions of E
ID...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032355Z - 040515Z

SUMMARY...Small but potent up/downdrafts remaining within near
record deep layer moisture near upper-low continue to pose highly
focused but 1-1.5" totals inducing possible flash flooding through
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a classic comma-head
associated with main mid-level cyclone across ID/MT/WY, with
pockets of overshooting tops breaking through upper-level cirrus
mainly along the western edge of the low, across the southeast
quadrant as well as along deformation zone and shortwave vorticity
center across SE MT, generally in proximity to remaining pockets
of SBCAPE.  While CAPE will slowly diminish over the coming hours
with loss of daytime heating, the above average moisture (near
daily record values) in the area and pockets of remaining MUCAPE
still have the potential to sprout updrafts with solid moisture
loading capable of intense short-term rates and totals up to
1-1.5" locally.  Deeper moisture streaming through the northern
High Plains along nose of 25-30kt low-level southeasterly LLJ
across SE MT, may aid greatest moisture flux convergence for an
isolated 2" total possibly.

Much of the development will remain under the favorable DPVA and
divergence aloft along/ahead of vorticity centers dotting around
the core of the upper-low...more likely across north-central WY
into south-central/southeast MT through 06z. Cores will be
narrow/smaller due to lower instability, but may also be slowing
in forward speed, especially near pivots in deeper layer flow.=20
Rainfall totals will be near 1hr FFG values so while reducing in
time, the risk of localized flash flooding remains possible into
the overnight period.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Qb7-e2-BCPoY7rrOZGAsahXQ9jwvLogl8dL3A5vtStL9Tpm6TNVbGPAD67BbObDyEKd=
rOFkvPJZQGl1jh2N7iP8iD8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...PIH...RIW...TFX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47350459 46820424 45900416 45390510 45150572=20
            44910611 44180610 43150620 42670698 42510774=20
            42610888 43111162 44271192 44891090 45190987=20
            45940845 46850717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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