Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1823
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 21:50:10

ACUS11 KWNS 032150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032149=20
MIZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032149Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for
sporadic severe/damaging winds and large hail across lower Michigan
through the evening hours. Given the limited nature of the threat,
watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells moving onshore across northwest
Lower MI have demonstrated transient signs of organization over the
past hour per KGRR and KAPX imagery. This activity, including a cell
along the eastern WI shore, has produced near-severe wind/hail over
the past couple of hours, including a 57 mph wind gust and 0.75 inch
hail. The regional thermodynamic and kinematic environment appear
adequate for convective maintenance with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-6 km bulk wind difference values approaching 30 knots. The
somewhat disorganized/clustered nature of the convection and modest
deep-layer shear will modulate the overall severe threat to some
degree, but sporadic severe hail and damaging winds appear possible
over the next few hours as these storms spread southeast across
Lower MI.

...Moore/Mosier.. 08/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9F_jrV-mZKsDvjSoxCTaSEgz7hp6spVApkkuXK_RmniM5Vcgdg2ZAJt1XX0slBN2DMs95MN66=
mB7MwWYUrbnkA3V4pw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   44038642 45028578 44878500 44458410 44038312 43678269
            42858248 42348307 42208371 42518489 42948569 43178614
            43398642 43688652 44038642=20


=3D =3D =3D
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