Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1820
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 17:51:09

ACUS11 KWNS 031751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031750=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Mississippi eastward/southeastward to
eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031750Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for strong wind gusts locally -- and possibly a
few gusts at/near severe levels -- will continue to slowly increase
this afternoon.  Risk may warrant consideration of a WW issuance in
the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows some redevelopment of storms
ongoing, near convective outflow on the southwestern flank of the
remnant MCS over the Tennessee Valley.  Diurnal heating -- and thus
destabilization -- has been somewhat muted from northern Alabama
eastward due to cloud cover.  However, mixed-layer CAPE now near
1000 J/kg (and greater to the west across northern Mississippi), has
begun fueling new storm development near the outflow boundary
extending roughly west-to-east across this area.

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is indicated across the region,
which is sufficient for some storm organization, and potential for
upscale/linear growth of storms with time.  Any risk for damaging
wind gusts would likely remain quite isolated, until and unless some
linear organization occurs.  We will continue to monitor convective
evolution for signs of such an increase, which would then
necessitate more serious WW consideration.

...Goss/Thompson.. 08/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8h_Lgi08Cp04R_46HgQNQWK4eJcxPM2v4sRmqUZn7KuB-Eq00A-H67QPqnAWTWd8m6_sRAHBC=
Dle7B3QrW4CetOK3C0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34538887 34498785 34348719 34368572 34488411 34228350
            33638295 32908314 32418355 32158553 33408814 34148890
            34538887=20


=3D =3D =3D
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