Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 17:29:10 ACUS02 KWNS 031729 SWODY2 SPC AC 031727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday afternoon. Additional strong storms are possible along a broad arc from the central Plains to the Southeast. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Northeast will feature moderate westerly flow moving through its base during the period. A flattened mid-level anticyclone over the southwest border states will remain while a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow extends from the central Rockies across the central Great Plains and towards the southern Appalachians. ....Northeast... A cold front will push through the region during the period. Along this boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning near the NY/Ontario border. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of 60s deg F dewpoints. Heating during the morning amidst cloud breaks will result in a moderately unstable airmass by midday into the early afternoon. A weak cap will erode and scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop in a broken band from PA north-northeast into New England by 17z. A mix of cells and linear structures will likely transition to mostly linear convection during the afternoon with widely scattered damaging gusts being the primary hazard. The thunderstorms will weaken by evening as they approach the coast. ....AR to Southern GA/Northern FL... Similar to Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Friday morning from eastern MO southeastward into the TN Valley. Remnant outflow and a zone of differential heating related to this early day activity will be focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Very moist low levels will contribute to moderate to strong instability. It remains unclear if/where a thunderstorm cluster will form during the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. ....Central Plains... Not much change in forecast thinking at this point compared to the previous convective outlook. Moist, upslope low-level flow within moderately unstable environment will support thunderstorm development over western portions of the central High Plains by late afternoon. A weak boundary is forecast to develop southward across NE into KS with storm coverage increasing during the evening. Several thunderstorm clusters, initially posing a risk for hail and strong gusts, are expected to develop east/southeast and likely focus the majority of the isolated severe risk. ...Smith.. 08/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .