Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 10:25:31 AWUS01 KWNH 031025 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-031500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0846 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 AM EDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...central and southeastern MO into central KY/TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 031023Z - 031500Z Summary...Areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are likely to continue from portions of central and southeastern MO into western KY through 15Z. Farther east, possible flash flooding will exist for portions of central KY/TN. Additional totals of 2-4 inches are expected. Discussion...10Z regional radar imagery continued to show an axis of training heavy rain over central and southeastern MO, although the axis is no longer contiguous. Rainfall rates have ranged from 1-3 in/hr across this region of MO since 06Z and portions of the region have seen 3 to 8 inches of rain over the past 24 hours (MRMS estimates). Farther east, a well-defined MCV was located in southern IN, tracking toward the southeast, associated with a small region of 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates ~30 miles south of Louisville, KY along I-65. VAD wind plots at 850 mb from KSGF and KPAH showed 35-40 kt from the west and tied with some of the coldest cloud tops on IR imagery. However, overrunning low level flow and areas of confluence were still producing thunderstorms upstream across central MO where some of the heaviest rain has fallen over the past 6-12 hours. Precipitable water values were estimated to be between 2 and 2.4 inches and instability ranged from a few hundred J/kg in central KY to 1000 to 2000+ J/kg near the confluence of the OH and MO rivers. The focus for the heaviest rain over the next 3-5 hours is expected to set up from southeastern MO into far southern IL and western KY, in line with the strongest isentropic lift atop a surface front draped across the central MO/AR border. Areas of NW to SE training with 1-2 in/hr rates (perhaps locally higher) are expected to continue areas of flash flooding. Farther upstream, ascent is expected to diminish over the next few hours, however, a localized flash flood threat will remain across central MO where ground conditions are hyper sensitive due to recent heavy rainfall. Locations farther east from KY into TN, ahead of the MCV, will see a localized flash flood threat where lift ahead of the MCV will continue areas of heavy rain with brief training just downstream of the MCV center. The greatest limiting factor for excessive rainfall across central KY/TN will be weak instability. However, peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr may still be enough to support localized rainfall totals of 2-3 inches through 15Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6H9YjyUi6CP-0ihZl9fBlAAM-5niHAOEE_pkNjoAwINZ_aGw2L4wT1KaRIdgWMpIcE9C= UgV5C6nx3NRa_ogJU8yhkAg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH... SGF... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38809182 38199048 37758952 37478873 37348821=20 37348770 37498725 38138612 38128551 37818483=20 37348425 36908404 36388417 36108477 35828556=20 35528656 35448764 35608834 36088934 36949067=20 37859232 38349296 38789291=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .