Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 07:02:36

ACUS03 KWNS 030702
SWODY3
SPC AC 030701

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central
Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on
Saturday.

....Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across portions
of the northern/central Plains and the Upper MS/Lower MO Valley
vicinity on Friday. At the surface, a low will track east/southeast
from SD to IA, and trailing cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plains toward IA/MO. While there are some timing/spatial
differences in both upper level and surface features across various
guidance, the overall pattern supports increased severe-thunderstorm
potential ahead of the surface low/front across portions of the
central Plains toward the MO Valley. Another factor posing some
uncertainty is possible ongoing convection Saturday morning across
KS into MO. This early activity may suppress convection for much of
the day until the cold front begins to surge southeast by late
afternoon/early evening. While this introduces some timing
uncertainty, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside across
the region. Thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front will
pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. During the
evening/overnight an increasing southwesterly low-level jet may aid
in maintaining a severe MCS eastward across the MO Valley, toward
the Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Some tornado potential also may
exist closer to the surface low.

Given the uncertainties mentioned above, the severe area may shift
some in subsequent outlooks as details become better resolved.

...Leitman.. 08/03/2023

$$

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