Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 06:19:00 AWUS01 KWNH 030618 FFGMPD KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-031015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...south-central IL into southwestern IN/western KY Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 030616Z - 031015Z SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will continue areas of flash flooding from portions of south-central IL into southwestern IN and parts of western KY for at least another 3-4 hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be likely at times. DISCUSSION...Training thunderstorms were ongoing over portions of south-central IL at 06Z with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 2-4 in/hr in Marion and Clay counties. Within that axis, a recent local station from Wunderground.com reported 1.84 inches of rain in 30 minutes, just southwest of Xenia, IL. Needless to say, the environment is highly capable of producing high rainfall rates with precipitable water values ranging between 2 and 2.5 inches along with 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE (05Z SPC mesoanalysis). The axis of thunderstorms was occurring northeast of a surface boundary analyzed in southwestern MO, along an elevated convergence axis with steering flow quasi-parallel to the convergence axis supporting training/repeating of cells. Forcing for ascent is likely to continue ahead of a remnant MCV analyzed in western IL, and north of a second/newer MCV propagating through far southern IL, both forecast to continue advancing to the southeast with the low to mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to continue forming along the elevated convergence axis as southwesterly 850 mb winds of 15-30 kt maintain for another few hours from MO into IL, before some veering is expected toward the 09/10Z time frame. Peak rainfall rates of 2-4 in/hr are expected at times within the axis of training heavy rain with forecast advancement into southwestern IN and portions of western KY over the next couple of hours. Redevelopment of convection will remain possible over upstream regions of southern IL, even as the main ongoing axis of heavy rain shifts southeastward across the OH River. Flash flooding wil remain likely over the next few hours and the area will be monitored for subsequent MPDs around 10Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-W3QKdffInW_eVSs9mzkhKq99h4PnmR2t1s_Cp2kIcb0ZJCLQH-GmzWZjBC1Mqzi_xiV= 4z09f5B3SsIbFwSqhdOZDbo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39628963 39508850 38948729 38298628 37578609=20 37278694 37538805 38188911 38919007 39549016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .