Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1818
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 04:07:05

ACUS11 KWNS 030407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030406=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...much of southeast Missouri into far southern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580...

Valid 030406Z - 030600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat continues from parts of central
into southeast Missouri. Some severe risk may persist just east of
the watch, and trends will need to be monitored as storms approach
the Mississippi River.

DISCUSSION...A severe MCS is ongoing over central into southeast MO,
near the front. This activity is being aided by an unstable feed of
air from the southwest, with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as seen on the
00Z SGF sounding. VWPs from St. Louis and Paducah indicate northwest
flow of 30-40 kt in the midlevels, which should continue to support
a few bowing structures within the leading line of storms,
especially with portions of the line oriented more north-south. A
sharp instability gradient exists roughly along the MS River, and
this may be where the storms begin to weaken. In addition, wind
speeds aloft also decrease with southward extent. However, robust
instability on the warm side of the boundary as well as the
organized nature of the MCS do suggest the threat could continue at
least for a few counties into far western KY or TN later tonight,
and trends will need to be monitored.

...Jewell.. 08/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5a6Bj0PwK5UkCuLOtVfU_VBfoIu6IV2nxf_VmWixT-gjTEYXeFSUKAsVlEMS0Do5Y3p_IRuqJ=
a48e2KkTo-N4ox2Wz4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38529297 38189221 37979171 37889120 37909071 37889037
            37728984 37438936 37168905 36758911 36438937 36419002
            36539104 36569139 37449232 37849264 38529297=20


=3D =3D =3D
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