Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 01:59:52

AWUS01 KWNH 030159
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0843
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 PM EDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NV...Northern UT...Southern ID...Western
MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030200Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will linger for several more hours,
prolonging the flash flood threat in parts of the Intermountain
West this evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to flare up from central NV all the
way to western WY thanks in large part to a potent 500mb upper low
over northern UT. RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from 500-1,000
J/kg of MUCAPE available for ongoing storms. The 00Z soundings in
SLC and LKN both measured PWs (LKN 0.98", SLC 1.20") that were
near the maximum moving average according to SPC sounding
climatology for early August. Storms will linger longer than
typical diurnally-driven storms thanks in large part to the upper
level low over northern UT. RAP guidance depicted deep moist
convergence hovering over northeast NV, northern UT, and southeast
ID, and southwest MT through 04Z. RAP guidance also showed
convergent 850-500mb flow continuing past 04Z in eastern NV.
Meanwhile, southerly flow will support upslope enhancement into
southwest WY. Eventually storms will use up the available
instability and dissipate, but flash flooding will remain possible
deeper into the evening hours.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4mRXS1GOJuKKLYCP8Qdu74CFYEbDTwMKoidcJ8DSiGUFQN_zEYdT9sfz97Uyfv4ZTOng=
rEF8rmFvR_GK_NcwOUh0D5I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43441058 42840910 42250891 41291191 39971354=20
            38821487 38161560 38441683 39901633 40841550=20
            41891430 43091257=20

=3D =3D =3D
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