Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 03 2023 01:02:36 ACUS01 KWNS 030102 SWODY1 SPC AC 030100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight from Missouri toward the lower Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ....MO into the lower OH Valley... Convection has been slow to initiate across parts of MO, but development has recently been noted across west-central MO, just to the north of a remnant outflow boundary. As a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves across northern MO and a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies, storm coverage is expected to increase with time this evening. Even if storms remain somewhat elevated, moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear will support organized storms, including the potential for supercells. Large hail will be the most likely initial threat with discrete storms, though a transition to one or more upscale-growing clusters is possible later this evening, with an increasing damaging-wind threat spreading southeastward toward the lower OH Valley. Favorable low-level shear would also support a conditional tornado risk with any storm that can become rooted near the surface, though this potential may be limited by increasing MLCINH with time. ....Central High Plains... Convection across the central High Plains has largely been disorganized into this evening, within a weakly sheared environment. However, guidance suggests potential for an MCV to develop from ongoing convection across southwest NE, with storm coverage expected to increase within a moderately unstable environment into northwest KS. An outflow-driven cluster may move eastward later tonight with an isolated severe-wind threat. ....Elsewhere... A few strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of the Intermountain west, though the earlier more organized wind threat that materialized across Utah has since diminished. An isolated strong storm or two also remain possible near the upper Great Lakes, but coverage of any severe threat is expected to very isolated at best. ...Dean.. 08/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .