Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 22:31:02

ACUS11 KWNS 022230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022230=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas into much of central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 022230Z - 030130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop this evening from far eastern
Kansas across much of central Missouri. Damaging winds will be the
primary risk, but hail may occur as well.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a plume of hot air with much of
northern OK into southeast KS over 105 F. Stronger boundary-layer
mixing is occurring beneath the stronger southwesterly flow aloft
with surface gusts of 20-25 kt within the heating zone. Despite
this, dewpoints remain in the 60s F, with 70s farther east of the
hot axis into MO.

A stationary front will be the main focus for develop over the next
few hours, and this extends from south of Emporia KS across the Lake
of the Ozarks and into southeast MO. Here, mid to upper 70s F
dewpoints remain, with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and precipitable water
to around 2.00".=20

An uncapped air mass along with speed convergence over southeast KS
into western MO near the boundary will support storm initiation
close to 00Z. Visible imagery already shows towering cumulus over
southeast KS, which appears to be the initiation zone. Depending on
the slope of the cooler air north of the front, additional activity
could form farther away from the boundary. If this occurs, hail
would be more likely as deep-layer shear increases substantially
with northward extent. Initial storm development near the boundary
will likely move slowly northeastward, with possible upscale growth
and potential acceleration by late evening as a cold pool grows.

...Jewell/Mosier.. 08/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HA0kghNxnkRZzHJp3f1kI0_DdaC4gEn_UHpoy6w_9_2p3MOauxV2IAD9R0CszW7HiOnobvSx=
RXCsDBbMLTbLBZqB9I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37569312 37809441 37949508 38109532 38349532 38539516
            38769452 38979380 39039296 39009203 38899075 38639016
            38338979 38038959 37808958 37498967 37348989 37219017
            37219051 37379102 37489147 37569312=20


=3D =3D =3D
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