Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 21:30:53

AWUS01 KWNH 022130
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0841
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...Central Great Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022130Z - 030230Z

SUMMARY...Storms gradually tracking east are producing excessive
rainfall rates and may lead to flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms located in northeast CO and
eastern WY have formed along a surface trough and are producing
torrential rainfall rates. MRMS 15-minute QPE shows these cells in
northeast CO have been producing up to 0.8" of rainfall in 15
minutes. These rates have prompted a gradual increase in MRMS max
unit streamflow in northeast CO most notably. RAP mesoanalysis
shows a sufficient amount of MLCAPE in place (1,000-1,500 J/kg
worth) and PWs are >1.2". In fact, NAEFS shows PWs within the
highlighted region between 18-00Z today are above the 90th
climatological percentile. Add in the fact that parts of the
northeast CO, western NE, and southeast WY have picked up as much
as 400% of normal rainfall over the past 7 days, and soils across
parts of the region are susceptible to flash flooding.

The lack of shear should help keep storms shorter lived, but the
trio of anomalous moisture, suitable instability, and sensitive
soils could result in these storms producing flash flooding this
afternoon. Will also have to monitor convection emerging off the
front range of northern CO/southern WY as they too could pose a
flash flood threat as they propagate east over the next few hours.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9q3mDr_QjyLx6x5FOOa1SEceGM6Sgs968QcvLZYoeBBorPutk_YzMctlCL_7fqsIlZOA=
xecyzZdHZPl0F5DZD457b6k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42920464 42900383 42590337 42140293 41250198=20
            40320210 39820298 39980420 40480464 41150491=20
            41840490 42540500=20

=3D =3D =3D
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