Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 19:56:34 ACUS01 KWNS 021956 SWODY1 SPC AC 021955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ....SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential appears to be over parts of the lower Missouri Valley region toward the lower Ohio Valley, this afternoon into evening. Severe gusts and large hail are expected, along with a marginal tornado threat. ....Discussion... The only change to the previous convective outlook was to remove low-severe probabilities in wake of the convective band over UT. ...Smith.. 08/02/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023/ ....MO and vicinity this afternoon through tonight... Overnight convection (associated with low-level warm advection) has been slowly weakening through the morning over MO. A couple of MCVs emanating from the overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding the potential for diurnal convection along the residual front/outflow boundary across MO/northeast KS, given the presence of substantial cloud cover and the need for surface temperatures to warm well into the 90s to reduce convective inhibition. Will maintain the outlook area with no changes in this update, but will have to monitor for late afternoon storm development near the KS/MO border close to I-70. If storms form in this area, the environment will conditionally favor the potential for large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Convection is expected to persist overnight with a renewed strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection. ....Central High Plains this afternoon/evening... Lingering low-level moisture across the central High Plains and surface heating in cloud breaks may again support scattered thunderstorm development to the east of the higher terrain later this afternoon into this evening. Vertical shear will be relatively weak, though a few strong outflow gusts will be possible. ....UT/northern AZ today... A well-defined MCV with associated convection is moving slowly northeastward from the lower CO River Valley toward UT. Strong surface heating/mixing will occur in advance of the ongoing convection, which will also coincide with a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow. The net result will be the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts with a broken band of convection spreading northeastward through the afternoon. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .