Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1814
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 18:12:32

ACUS11 KWNS 021812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021812=20
UTZ000-AZZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...Portion of northern Arizona into central/eastern
Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021812Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms across the eastern Great
Basin will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon.
A watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues northward within the
Colorado River Valley this afternoon. This trough is moving into an
anomalously moist environment within the Great Basin. GPS PW
retrievals and the 12Z observed SLC sounding show over 1 inch in
northern Utah increasing to around 1.5 inches near Las Vegas. This
quasi-tropical environment does feature rather modest mid-level
lapse rates for the intermountain region, but strong surface heating
for portions of central/eastern Utah will at least allow low-level
lapse rates to steepen. Boundary-layer mixing should be sufficient
for a a few strong/severe outflow wind gusts. With the forcing
provided by the trough, a linear segment or two could develop and
help to better focus the wind gust threat.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 08/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!81As5YnM38f9pMJECQYcO3O5u4_SPe9tBPExQGPYU02sSUAHfJ3ppbC9hAr7n1R6-FiZDbf80=
Xht0BdHkyR06mLUC0s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   36361190 35621301 35371350 35391381 35821368 37021318
            37971295 38741304 39641332 40641317 40821289 40871177
            40181112 39671073 38601018 37391070 36361190=20


=3D =3D =3D
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