Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1813
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 07:39:29

ACUS11 KWNS 020739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020738=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Far Northern Kansas...Southwest
Iowa...Northern and Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020738Z - 021015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible
from southern Nebraska into southwest Iowa and north-central
Missouri over the next few hours. The threat is expected to be
marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Hastings
and Omaha show two MCSs ongoing. The first is over southwest
Nebraska and northwest Kansas, which is located to the west of a
pocket of moderate to strong instability. The second is over
southwest Iowa and north-central Missouri. The second MCS is located
along a north-to-south gradient of instability, and is associated
with moderate deep-layer shear evident on RAP analysis. A low-level
temperature inversion is evident on RAP forecast soundings across
much of the region. For this reason, convection is expected to
remain elevated. Although a wind-damage and hail threat will be
possible with the stronger multicells and/or short-lived supercells,
the environment will continue to be marginal for severe storms. Any
severe threat should remain localized and brief.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 08/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-rmhACCmz-RTNWxaGxgUu0bqffGD2KozHrnIRp-cZBqOIESoosNRaqsqQ5OyOs58F8pGSX0OQ=
GCbX6Ny4MQoM7poYM0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   39849529 39539390 38919292 38789223 39089176 39689191
            40879310 41839502 41909728 40989947 40599982 40199970
            39989928 39919841 39849529=20


=3D =3D =3D
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