Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 07:06:59

ACUS03 KWNS 020706
SWODY3
SPC AC 020705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are
possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday.

....Northeast...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern third of the CONUS
on Friday. A weak surface front will drop southward across portions
of the Northeast. A seasonally moist airmass will reside ahead of
the front and modest destabilization is forecast. Effective shear
around 25-35 kt will support organized cells. Elongated forecast
hodographs suggest the strongest cells could produce marginally
severe hail. Otherwise, strong gusts also will be possible through
early evening.

....Central Plains...

Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across
the central Plains on Friday. A weak midlevel low over the northern
Plains will suppress the upper ridge over the region, and weak
vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate through westerly midlevel
flow. Thunderstorms will likely develop during peak heating in
moist, upslope flow within a moderately unstable airmass across the
central High Plains. Weak vertical shear may limit severe potential,
and several days of prior convection also may impact quality of
boundary-layer moisture/thermodynamics. Low-end severe probabilities
may be needed at some point, but confidence is too low to introduce
marginal probabilities at this time.

....Southeast...

Moderate northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist on Friday. An MCV
from prior days convection may move across parts of GA and the
Carolinas, providing support for thunderstorms amid a moist/unstable
environment. While this generally will support some severe
potential, uncertainty in the evolution of convective systems in the
Day 1/Day 2 time period, and how this will impact the downstream
environment across parts of the Southeast on Day 3, remains too high
to include unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 08/02/2023

$$

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