Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 06:11:40

AWUS01 KWNH 020611
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0833
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Areas affected...southern/central Nebraska and northern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020610Z - 021210Z

Summary...A cluster of storms across southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas should continue to slowly move eastward
tonight, resulting a continued, isolated flash flood risk.

Discussion...The risk of flash flooding continues across
southwestern Nebrask and western Kansas as a slow-moving, loosely
organized convective complex migrates eastward across the area.=20=20
Over the past hour or so, radar trends have indicated a tendency
for storms to develop just ahead of the main convective cluster
across southwestern Nebraska near Lexington.  This development
indicates potential for cells to merge and repeat across local
areas, increasing rain rates locally into the 2+ inch/hr range.=20
Local FFG thresholds (in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range) were being
challenged by the heavier rain rates, further supporting flash
flood potential.

Another couple factors were also supporting a continued heavy
rainfall threat with this activity: 1) downstream increases in the
low-level jet and convergence along the Kansas/Nebraska border and
2) 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE as depicted per SPC Mesoanalyses downstream
of ongoing storms.  The scenario should allow for maintenance of
the convective cluster as it moves through the discussion area -
perhaps reaching the Kearney/Grand Island vicinity through 08-09Z.
 Additional slow-moving convection developing ahead of the
convective cluster could also materialize during this time period
as low-level convergence peaks in southeastern Nebraska through
10Z.  Again, rain rates in these areas should support isolated
flash flooding - especially where training can materialize and
sensitive grounds become impacted.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_8PcBbi3fVcTonotGZBpuBXKTKel01PeCQjO3zPHPrO_n8kLZ-kftgqrQPet7WXXsinb=
Pw8SViqaDFwnetEMTFk3UHI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41899682 41439605 40489563 39839566 39309692=20
            38879880 38240057 38570144 39300159 41370061=20
            41539958 41849799=20

=3D =3D =3D
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