Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 01:54:08

AWUS01 KWNH 020154
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0831
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...CA Mojave Desert

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020200Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that are responsible for flash flooding in
parts of southern NV and southern CA this evening looks to
continue for a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar showed a cluster of storms surrounding
Las Vegas that were still taking advantage of the favorable
environment to produce excessive rainfall rates. The most intense
storm emerged off of Mt. Charleston and prompted MRMS Max Unit
Streamflow levels to top 1,000 cfs/smi. The 00Z Las Vegas sounding
sampled an environment featuring over 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and PWs
of 1.49". The observed 1.49" PW is not only above the 90th
climatological percentile, but above the daily climatological
maximum moving average according to SPC's sounding climatology
page. The area is also under the influence of a weak 500mb
vorticity maximum over the Mojave Desert, which is helping to
provide additional lift atop the column.

With the loss of daytime heating, storms should begin to weaken,
but it may take a few hours due to the lingering instability in
place and the 500mb vort max aloft. Outflows from these ongoing
storms could also trigger additional cells, which could place the
immediate Las Vegas metro area at-risk. The storm emerging off Mt.
Charleston sported >1" MRMS QPE in 15 minutes, suggesting these
storms could produce over 2"/hr rainfall rates. Given the
favorable parameters, the flash flood threat will continue for a
few more hours until the storms finally use up the remaining
instability over the region.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-mlbYM6AVU_yo-X2AdUBy-umM04KQp68JF8PC91UsJGU133b_254gZKHg6-cJag5iC6_=
6hfj28cZviYwUW1nbgsU7gQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37061501 36631400 36161304 35411300 35051347=20
            34691504 34971579 35581630 36411633 36971586=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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