Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 01:00:58 ACUS01 KWNS 020100 SWODY1 SPC AC 020059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ND...AND FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ....North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, are ongoing across parts of ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear will continue to support supercell potential for a few hours this evening, with an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into a small southeastward-moving cluster remains possible from western into south-central ND, where storm coverage is increasing and multiple boundary collisions are imminent. This would result in an uptick in the severe-wind potential through this evening, before storms eventually weaken late tonight as they approach an increasingly capped environment across northern SD. ....Parts of the central High Plains... Storms are gradually increasing in coverage across northeast CO this evening, aided by moist low-level easterly flow. Deep-layer flow is relatively weak, but veering wind profiles are supporting of 25-30 kt, and few strong multicells with an isolated hail and severe wind threat will remain possible early this evening. Outflow consolidation may result in modestly organized upscale growth later this evening, which would tend to propagate into a strongly unstable environment across northwest KS and southwest NE with a severe-wind threat. ....Eastern NE into MO and southwest IA... Elevated convection is expected to develop late tonight from eastern NE/western IA into parts of MO, as a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet impinges on a northwest to southeast baroclinic zone. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient effective shear may support occasionally organized storms, including the potential for stronger clusters and perhaps a few marginal supercells. Weak midlevel lapse rates and rather warm temperatures aloft may tend to keep the hail threat isolated at best, while the elevated nature of the convection should limit severe-wind potential. ...Dean.. 08/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .