Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 02 2023 00:38:06

AWUS01 KWNH 020038
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0830
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Northwest KS...Southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020035Z - 020535Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from Colorado will congeal and
track into the heart of the Central Plains. Flash flooding is
possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...As the evening unfolds, thunderstorms to the west
will begin to congeal and advance east thanks to mean 850-300mb
winds coming out of the WSW. The cold pool developing in northeast
CO will become the primary driver of additional thunderstorm
activity as it tracks east tonight. The atmosphere ahead of the
approaching cluster of storms features as much as 3,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in northwest KS while the RAP shows a surge in PWs that
approaches 1.75-2.0" within the highlighted region. RAP forecast
soundings suggest warm cloud layers will hover around 11,000' in
depth and low-mid level RH averages close to 85%. In short, these
storms will become more efficient rainfall producers than the
storms that originated along the Front Range. So while storms
should remain fairly progressive amid 15-20 knots worth of mean
steering winds, hourly rainfall rates up to 2-2.5"/hr are still
more than enough to be concerned about flash flooding.

One hour flash flood guidance (FFG) is generally below 2"/hr for
most of the region. Given the parameters listed above, soils
throughout the area could be susceptible to flash flooding. AHPS
7-day rainfall analysis shows up to 200-300% of normal rainfall in
parts of northeast CO and northwest KS, so these areas in
particular have the best odds of contending with flash flooding
tonight. The flash flood threat should wain after midnight as the
main cluster of storms races east into northern KS.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!68YHqwKI9O43N-tz92N0Q2DvfItoKeV3-SOhdfMjfD_emUYfa0wqvkRkB3iVAMK-uLrs=
-xBaFaPAfupD2IJgaCyUNoE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41270250 41260153 40740045 39500030 38850101=20
            38810250 39270339 40060323 40980331 41200307=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.