Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1808
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 20:33:55

ACUS11 KWNS 012033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012033=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012033Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across portions
of the central High Plains. Severe wind and hail will be the main
threats with the stronger storms. Timing of the peak severe threat
is uncertain, with WW issuance time dependent on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have been percolating along the
higher terrain across eastern CO into southeast WY over the past few
hours, with MRMS showing 50 dBZ cores extending up to 35 kft and
MESH approaching 1 inch in diameter. Across the High Plains of
southeast WY into eastern CO and the NE Panhandle, surface
temperatures are approaching 90F, that combined with upper 50s/low
60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, is
supporting 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear is overall weak,
suggesting that pulse-cellular storms and multicells will be the
main storm mode, with severe wind and the hail the main threats.
Convection-allowing guidance consensus suggests that most storms
should eventually congeal into a loosely organized
eastward-propagating MCS later this evening, with severe gusts
becoming the primary concern.

At the moment, the main uncertainty is the timing of any uptick in
storm coverage and intensity. Given modest (i.e. 30 kts) of 500 mb
westerly flow and residual MLCINH, storms have struggled to move off
of the higher terrain so far. However, a critical point should
eventually be reached when storms move off of the higher terrain,
supporting a relatively more organized severe threat. Convective
trends are being monitored for this severe-threat increase and
resultant need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-cDazsz77WXwRfNF-I1knJI-NRfMetrW7eqK5YnFeNNN_bV1DI__P9SzP7hPkTc5iUBsAwoKG=
lLqrDrHuO3YnlUYLFg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37030361 38390437 40000469 40730467 41350391 41580312
            41500243 40690224 39280228 38000230 37450247 37050276
            37030361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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