Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 20:25:35

AWUS01 KWNH 012025
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southwest UT...Southern NV...CA
Mojave Desert

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012025Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Growing field of thunderstorms containing up to 1.5"/hr
rainfall rates may cause flash flooding in areas containing
sensitive soils.

DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture revolving around the eastern
periphery of an upper level ridge axis over the southern Plains
remains in place over much of the Southwest. Through surface based
heating and the assistance of a pair of embedded upper level
disturbances aloft, numerous showers and thunderstorms have
erupted from northern Arizona and points north and west. RAP
forecasts suggests as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be
available while PWs creep as high as 1-1.25" for much of the area.

Storm motions will be a bit more progressive than yesterday thanks
to 10-15 knots worth of mean 850-300mb steering flow. However,
parts of northern AZ, southwest UT, and southern NV have been
rather wet over the past 7-days. AHPS 7-day rainfall totals are as
much as 1-2" above normal in some of these areas, and rainfall
rates as high as 1.5"/hr are possible within the most intense
storms. Given the potential for 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates and
increasingly sensitive soils, flash flooding is possible within
the highlighted region once again this afternoon and evening.
Storms will gradually dissipate later tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7aL4_Wyl5upKKVbSDB_QBF89cJh2ZBkSi0yzPue8t3ni1-njHoBKvm7A4a9aGGcqLmOq=
RaueQ4jM58rThx-16JB526k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37581348 36861154 36001097 34531089 34231176=20
            34531273 34631302 34491456 34601525 35321598=20
            35841620 36671615 37451511=20

=3D =3D =3D
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