Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1807
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 20:23:23

ACUS11 KWNS 012023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...eastern ND...northwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 012022Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the wind shift over eastern ND into northwest MN.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over
eastern ND with the initial thunderstorms developing over northwest
MN.  A seasonably moist airmass is currently located over the Red
River Valley with lower 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the lower
90s.  Short-term model guidance indicates at least isolated
thunderstorms will evolve from the swelling cumulus field over
eastern ND.  Given the large buoyancy and moderately strong
deep-layer shear, a few supercells may eventually develop from the
more robust updrafts.  Large hail and severe gusts will be the
primary hazards.  Timing is a bit uncertain but an increase in storm
coverage and severe risk will probably occur through the early
evening.

...Smith/Thompson.. 08/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_E0-zIcXTGUJRbWsGl5vYMHjIPjEhb8Zsm0Kvsm7wtZ2Y3Ju_hfJgkV0fx_wEivjiYsmU5wgd=
d6JYodENblxYKaP2Og$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47910032 48169999 48579594 48369552 47459538 46589546
            46429615 46829694 47169973 47460026 47910032=20


=3D =3D =3D
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