Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1806
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 20:13:25

ACUS11 KWNS 012013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012012=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...far eastern MT...western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 012012Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually develop and intensify through
the early evening.  A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
issued between 2045-2200 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows mid-level convection
moving east near the MT/ND/Saskatchewan border.  The first
boundary-layer cumulus have recently developed over western ND
during the 1930-2000 UTC period.  Surface analysis shows easterly
flow with dewpoints in the lower 70s over eastern ND and decreasing
with westward extent to the upper 50s over northeast MT.  Surface
temperatures continue to warm through the upper 80s and into the
lower to mid 90s near the MT/ND border near a diffuse frontal zone.

Model guidance gradually shows thunderstorms developing over far
eastern MT and growing upscale into a cluster of storms this evening
as it moves into western ND.  The weakly forced setup lends low
confidence in terms of timing specifics, but the general notion of
isolated to scattered storms developing seems plausible.  Once
storms mature/intensify, ample mid to high-level flow will favor
storm organization and a severe risk.  Large hail and severe gusts
are the primary hazards and this threat will likely persist through
the evening as it moves east into central portions of ND.

...Smith/Thompson.. 08/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Q5PuChXT7hEg-mm8ZQEWeVhHaQMibHGZwxX58RrhS14tW-SotDGF0hI1glLjZT5aDF6ewrdA=
dcCFSiUsENj4i_C2wA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   48130524 48740378 48870202 48310069 47460032 46510042
            46010094 46090269 46890417 47490510 48130524=20


=3D =3D =3D
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