Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 19:31:33 AWUS01 KWNH 011931 FFGMPD NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020130- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0827 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023 Areas affected...Central Rockies & High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 011930Z - 020130Z SUMMARY...A burgeoning field of thunderstorms, some of which will be strong-to-severe, are likely to produce areas of flash flooding this afternoon. Locations most prone to flash flooding are heavily urbanized metro areas and communities hit hard from yesterday's thunderstorm activity. DISCUSSION...The central Rockies and High Plains remain in a primed position for more rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon. 18Z surface analysis showed a stalled frontal boundary oriented N-S along the CO and WY Rockies while an upper level disturbance remains in place over Utah. Agitated cumulus have blossomed over the CO Rockies today as southwesterly 850-300mb winds have aided in enhancing upslope flow into most mountain ranges. Moisture content is abundant in CO and southern WY with precipitable water (PW) values forecast to range between 1-1.25" east of the Front Range. Most PW values throughout the highlighted region are around or above the 90th climatological percentile according to NAEFS. Strong surface based heating and dew points rising into the 60s have caused MLCAPE to increase and should reach 1,000-1,500 J/kg in east-central CO, southeast WY, and western NE later this afternoon. Most RAP soundings do not show exceptionally deep warm cloud layers, but the anomalous moisture aloft, ample instability, and slower moving storm motions will be more than enough to aid in the development of storms capable of producing flash flooding. In addition to the favorable atmospheric variables, parts of the region witnessed heavy rainfall and resulting flash flooding yesterday. AHPS 7-day rainfall totals are as high as 400-600% of normal along the Front Range and I-25 from Colorado Springs to Cheyenne. MRMS soil saturation shows anywhere from 50-75% soil saturation from the Front Range west of Colorado Springs to areas west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne. This recipe (heavy and slow moving storms + overly saturated soils) is ripe for flash flooding yet again this afternoon. As storms emerge off the Front Range and Palmer Divide, they will cross over the I-25 corridor and track into the High Plains of northeast CO, far southeast WY, and far western NE later this evening where the flash flood threat will persist. Flash flooding is expected this afternoon and evening with locations featuring the highly saturated soils most susceptible, as well as in urbanized metro areas and poor drainage spots. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZYjxBYIfViyAkR4wqm6sJF8xouUlgpH2JWCoN17nuAJMqldGAraEDcbjYQvbZu8Tfy2= snL4b1W8p7E5Q3S8L2WDYNM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41960424 41220345 39520341 38030484 38210590=20 38190655 38260713 38650766 39290788 40080729=20 40780643 41870529=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .