Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1805
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 18:58:54

ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011858=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-012030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...South Carolina into southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011858Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible this afternoon.
Severe potential is isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are rising into the upper 80s F
amid near 70F dewpoints, with convective temperatures being reached,
supporting thunderstorm initiation (evident via NLDN data showing
lightning flashes along the NC/SC border). Though mid-level lapse
rates are mediocre, rich low-level moisture supports 1500 J/kg of
tall/thin MLCAPE. When also considering elongated hodographs (and
resultant 30+ kts of effective bulk shear), multicellular storms may
develop, supporting the risk of isolated damaging gusts. Given the
sparse severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_W6S06dLj-JmBBFPRFCz6ziCXVApxOCi8svgawKjyVD74q2pCvI8kjtiJhv3TDRgsEU3jNITr=
7uzh7BPAVyNjDRLWug$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   33178234 33698202 34308100 34648006 34767886 34667801
            34437783 34077798 33297891 32977954 32758007 32618087
            32608159 33178234=20


=3D =3D =3D
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