Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 18:16:03

AWUS01 KWNH 011815
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-020015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0826
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Central UT...Far Northwest CO...Far Southwest WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011815Z - 020015Z

SUMMARY...Afternoon thunderstorms containing rainfall rates as
high as 1.5"/hr may cause areas of flash flooding in rugged
terrain and burn scars.

DISCUSSION...An upper level disturbance over central Utah is
working together with increasing surface based-heating and
anomalous moisture aloft to produce a growing field of towering
cumulus clouds along the Wasatch and Uinta ranges. The most
anomalous atmospheric variable present is precipitable water (PW),
with values forecast to rise up to (and in some areas above) 1".
NAEFS showed PWs at 18Z and 00Z that were above the 90th
climatological percentile and in some cases above the 97.5
percentile. Instability is increasing as low-mid level clouds have
dissipated and led to stronger surface based heating. SBCAPE has
risen on the order of 400-600 J/kg over the past 3-hours according
to RAP mesoanalysis. 850-300mb winds are out of the south and
topping out around 10 knots. This suggests not only could most
storms be slow movers, but the southerly flow is both ideal for
training/back-building storms along the Wasatch, and enhanced
upslope flow into the Uinta range.

Parts of the region have been rather wet over the past 7-days.
This is supported by 7-day AHPS rainfall totals that have topped
300% of normal during that span. These areas with more saturated
soils, along with residual burn scars throughout the highlighted
region are most at-risk for potential flash flooding this
afternoon and early evening. There could also be cases of flash
flooding along sharply slopped terrain and along creeks and
streams.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_FhScKT9WeNqtiZaPVC9OPjzY1SalinxyOT_sqCxNq6uz-XCMSIVzNINPPOeW6RIEGBg=
AMHFh2IJ-C2GhzAj5NgirU4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41541172 41481099 41400894 40240886 39700920=20
            39161070 38141131 37591186 37431249 37581289=20
            38321289 39551238 40771193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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