Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 08:57:53

ACUS48 KWNS 010857
SWOD48
SPC AC 010856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Weak to moderate northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist from the
central Plains to the Southeast on Day 4/Fri. Isolated strong storms
are possible from the central Plains toward the Mid-MS/TN Valley
vicinity, though severe potential should remain limited.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that
an upper shortwave trough will eject across the northern/central
Plains on Day 5/Sat. A surface low will develop over eastern MT and
track east across the Dakotas. A cold front will develop eastward
across the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. A very
moist airmass ahead of the front will provide ample instability,
while vertical shear increases in response to the deepening surface
low and approaching upper trough. A band of severe storms is likely
to sweep across portions of the central Plains toward the MO-Valley
Day 5/Sat afternoon into the nighttime hours.

The upper trough will continue east across the Midwest and into the
Northeast Days 6-7/Sun-Mon. Some severe potential may continue over
parts of the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity on Day 6/Sun and into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Day 7/Mon. Severe potential will be
influenced by previous days' convection and the timing of the upper
trough and surface front. Currently, forecast guidance handles the
evolution of these features quite differently beyond Day 5/Sat, and
too much uncertainty exists to delineate 15 percent severe
probabilities. However, probabilities may be needed somewhere across
the Midwest to the middle/upper portions of the Atlantic coast in
the Sun/Mon time frame in subsequent outlooks, depending on trends
in forecast guidance.

...Leitman.. 08/01/2023

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