Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 06:13:27

AWUS01 KWNH 010613
FFGMPD
MOZ000-011200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0824
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...much of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010611Z - 011200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should continue to become more
widespread/numerous overnight tonight, with repeating and training
of individual cells expected.  Flash flood potential will increase
through 12Z.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, convection has deepened
along a north-northwest to south-southeast axis very near Sedalia.
 Storms are responding to a veering, but slowly strengthening
low-level jet located across Kansas.  The veering nature of the
low-level jet was increasing low-level convergence across Missouri
in an environment characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE (highest
toward the KS/MO border) and nearly 2 inch PW values.  The
moisture/instability combination is expected to support efficient
rainfall processes beneath individual storms as they mature.=20
Meanwhile, north-northwesterly mid-level flow (parallel to the
initiating axis of convergence) is expected to allow for areas of
training and repeating of storms, possibly enabling development of
2 inch/hr rain rates and prolonged heavy rainfall that should
eclipse both 1- and 3-hour FFG thresholds.

The lingering uncertainty with regard to expected convective
development is specific placement of band of heavier rainfall.=20
00Z HREF 1-hour FFG exceedance probabilities generally maximize
along an axis from near CDJ southward to south/southeast of SZL,
with the bulk of heavier rainfall expected within about 30-40
miles either side of that axis.  Current radar trends seem to fit
this thinking.  As storms continue to develop through the early
morning hours, localized areas of 4-6 inch rainfall totals could
be experienced amid a general envelope of 1 inch amounts through
12Z this morning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5q3nxKpMl5D404k3GiSdohzRq6tAte0-XUd8Hb3xBWYUgwUHXgLeulnXtQYE5ycE260M=
Y6VK5QCaXe3BSpUtUa60zpU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40419455 40359323 39609211 38399141 37339117=20
            36779129 36749348 37389399 39009454 39739478=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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