Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 05:31:49 ACUS02 KWNS 010531 SWODY2 SPC AC 010530 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts and hail are possible across the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... Moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow regime will continue across the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley vicinity on Wednesday. A midlevel shortwave trough will develop east/southeast from Manitoba through Ontario, while a convectively enhanced low/MCV moves across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will track south/southeast across MN/WI/MI from late afternoon into the overnight hours. ....Upper Great Lakes... Some early day showers/thunderstorms are possible across northern MN, causing some forecast uncertainty. However, much of the region from central MN into WI and the Upper Peninsula will see surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F. This will aid in a band of moderate instability ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Bulk shear around 30-40 kt will support organized cells. Forecast soundings show modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 1-2 km. This suggests isolated hail potential with strongest storms. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates will foster isolated strong/damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding convective coverage and cold front timing will preclude higher severe probabilities at this time. ....Mid-MS Valley vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning from southern IA through much of eastern MO. This activity is not expected to be severe and should diminish through the day. Additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon will depend on how quickly morning activity and cloud cover clears out. If convection/cloud cover lingers, thunderstorm potential will be limited. Isolated thunderstorms could develop along residual outflow/differential heating zone by early evening as a low-level jet and warm advection increases. However, severe potential is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ...Leitman.. 08/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .