Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 01:47:20

AWUS01 KWNH 010147
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-010645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0823
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
946 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010146Z - 010645Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will continue a flash flood
threat for portions of the central/northern CO Front Range into
southeastern WY and the western panhandle of NE for another 3-6
hours.

Discussion...01Z surface observations combined with local radar
imagery from KFTG and KCYS showed strong to severe thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the I-25 corridor from the CO/WY border to
Colorado Springs. Easterly upslope low level flow of 10-20 kt at
850 mb, locally enhanced by thunderstorm outflow, was observed
across the region along with surface dewpoints in the low to
mid-60s, contributing to estimated MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (01Z
SPC mesoanalysis). A larger outflow boundary was noted on KFTG
radar imagery east of the Denver metro, pushing ENE into the High
Plains at 15-20 kt. The high low level moisture content of the
airmass has contributed to efficient rainfall production from slow
moving cells with 1 to 2 in/hr observed rainfall rates, locally
higher, such as near Castle Rock ending 01Z.

The central High Plains is located beneath the northwestern
extension of an elongated upper level ridge centered over western
OK/KS, with diffluent and divergent flow aloft locally enhanced by
ongoing convection. Thunderstorms are expected to continue forming
as east/northeastward advancing outflow continues to advance into
the unstable environment with continued potential for 1-2 in/hr
rainfall rates atop a region of the U.S. which has seen over 200
percent of normal rainfall over the past week. The increased soil
moisture values relative to average will increase flash flood
potential from locally high rainfall rates. The flash flood threat
may begin to wind down after ~04Z if a strong enough cold pool is
able to form and push storms along the leading edge in a more
progressive manner as suggested by recent runs of the HRRR.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7z7J4aIyBLXbZCCQTxJD12cLhtMuHEGepndY5E_ypMO9i7UFSIjc_AC3L56pxQX3st0C=
XcCM-Ma0_28pO5fObhF-O9Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42790435 42710360 41980307 41460254 40300255=20
            39300322 38660393 38360500 38750550 39740531=20
            40450554 41040552 41680548 42220543 42690496=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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