Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 00:40:47

ACUS01 KWNS 010040
SWODY1
SPC AC 010039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this evening across portions of
the northern Plains. Hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms
remain possible over the desert Southwest and later tonight over
Missouri/Arkansas region.

....01z Update...

Upper ridge is flattening across AB/SK early this evening in
response to a short-wave trough that is progressing across these
prairie Provinces. Southern extent of this feature will glance the
international border region and warm advection is expected to aid a
few strong/severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains this
evening. Latest radar imagery supports this with isolated supercells
now developing from Bottineau to Wells County ND. Hail will be the
primary risk with these storms as they propagate slowly southeast.
Have increased severe probabilities for hail to account for this
regional risk.

Southeasterly flow is deepening across the lower deserts of the
Southwest this evening as a notable short-wave trough migrates west
across the northern Baja/lower CO River Valley. While most
convection is currently located over the higher terrain of AZ, gusty
winds are possible with storms as they propagate slowly toward lower
elevations.

Later tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to aid elevated
convection across the lower MO Valley. Convection has mostly
dissipated across this region with only the carcass of the early-day
MCS now evident over eastern MO. Seasonally strong northwesterly
mid-level flow and veering winds with height suggest some
organization is possible as southwesterly 850mb flow increases
across eastern KS/northwestern MO.

...Darrow.. 08/01/2023

$$

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