Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1800
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 22:11:43

ACUS11 KWNS 312211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312211=20
NDZ000-312345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/north ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312211Z - 312345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will be possible this evening, with
a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely, but will become possible if storm
coverage becomes greater than expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently developed over
southwest Manitoba, with attempts at convective initiation noted
across far northeast Bottineau County, ND, and increasing cumulus
across north-central ND. Modest diurnal heating amid relatively rich
low-level moisture is supporting moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
1500-3000 J/kg), while northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting
effective shear of 35-45 kt across the region. As a result, the
environment is conditionally favorable for supercell development.=20

The primary uncertainty this evening is storm coverage. While
multiple mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are moving across the
Canadian Prairies, most of ND is under the influence of an upper
ridge, and large-scale ascent will likely remain limited. However, a
weak warm-advection regime may continue to support isolated storm
development, with any mature storms tending to propagate
southeastward along the primary instability gradient. As a result, a
supercell or two may develop and move across parts of north and
central ND this evening, with a threat of large hail and localized
severe gusts.=20

Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely due to the
expectation for the threat to remain isolated, but will become
possible if short-term trends support a greater coverage of storms
than currently anticipated.

...Dean/Grams.. 07/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_md_x7gJGCwtfLwXit3k81HLMytuiRiXiIvIlWcmBx3OWa0VbBJ9UWCJ_EwaQywc9U0pz3dED=
GGjW0wNmP0iapR3PCE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48990147 48989982 48299952 47629936 47379944 47120011
            47250081 47710124 48100147 48660158 48990147=20


=3D =3D =3D
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