Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 16:03:11

AWUS01 KWNH 311603
FFGMPD
FLZ000-312200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0819
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...Central & Southern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311600Z - 312200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing >3"/hr
rainfall rates may result in flash flooding, particularly in more
heavily urbanized spots and where antecedent soils moisture
conditions are overly saturated.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite imagery around 15Z showed mostly
sunny skies across portions of central Florida and all of south
Florida. An upper trough located west of Tampa Bay has placed its
divergent upper level winds directly over Florida. The 12Z upper
air soundings from MFL and TBW showed no shortage of available
instability with the highest moisture content located over central
Florida. This aligns well with latest RAP mesoanalysis with >2"
PWs from the Jacksonville area on south to Lake Okeechobee. By
early-mid afternoon, PWs will approach 2" as far south as the
Miami metro while MLCAPE grow to >3,000 J/kg. RAP forecast
soundings showed warm cloud layers as deep as 13,000' AGL.

Storms will form generally along the developing sea breeze front
tracking inland from the western Florida coast. A sea breeze will
also move inland along the eastern Florida coast, but not quite as
far inland as the one in western Florida thanks to lighter
southwesterly 850-300mb wind flow helping to push thunderstorms in
western Florida into the heart of the Sunshine State. Latest HREF
shows 20-40% probabilities for >3"/hr rainfall rates around and
east of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. There are parts of the
eastern Florida coast that have been rather active over the past 7
days. AHPS shows rainfall totals >300% of normal from Melbourne on
south towards Miami. Vertical wind shear will be lacking, meaning
pulse storms will be the most common storm mode and should limit
the duration of heavy rainfall for most areas. That said, the
storms will pack a punch in a very short time frame and could
result in flash flooding today. Areas most at-risk are the more
heavily urbanized communities and in those areas with more
saturated/sensitive soils.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-_C1Nz5U6lCPJ7lHcM8yioqaGGKYXUFStt__0aLcrslGOTJDAxDgB8m5YDqmtcG1bM-E=
a9r9QtRkqvmq6_2HUjYjudQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28648100 28498049 27898037 26888003 25898006=20
            25518024 25328037 25388055 25838085 25828168=20
            26228200 26748239 27388265 28068276 28418196=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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