Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 06:56:05

AWUS01 KWNH 310655
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-311254-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0818
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...west-central to southeastern Nebraska,
northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310654Z - 311254Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected in portions of the discussion area.  2-3 inch rain
totals (some falling in a couple hours) is expected.  These rates
could cause isolated instances of flash flood potential through
13Z.

Discussion...Scattered storms should continue to increase in
coverage along an axis from near LBF to near LNK to near TOP and
MCI.  This axis will remain a focus for sustained low-level
convergence along the northeastern extent of a 30-40 kt low-level
jet centered across western and central Kansas.  Additionally,
moisture has pooled along this axis (with PW values approaching
1.9 inches) and steep mid-level lapse rates (~7.5C/km) were also
noted per SPC mesoanalyses.  Lastly, an organizing MCS across
north-central Nebraska and vicinity will migrate
east-southeastward (driven by west-northwesterly mean flow) and
will parallel the aforementioned axis over the next several hours.
 Each of these factors point to potentially widespread convection
through 13Z along with localized areas of convective training and
cell mergers that could increase hourly rainfall rates into the
1.5-2.5 inch at times.

These rain rates will fall atop variable areas of FFG thresholds
that generally range from around 1.5 inch/hr across southeastern
Nebraska to 2 inches/hr across much of Kansas and northwestern
Missouri.  It appears that the greatest (yet still isolated)
concern for flash flooding through the night will reside from
central through southeastern Nebraska where 1) low-level
convergence is maximized and 2) FFGs are relatively low.  More
isolated instances of flash flood potential are expected elsewhere
in the discussion area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4bLajH6nwyjFZ9oJjmeFEOx29iSVKxF0rBFVH-YyM9H9iBVb2S1-2bj1ofaKO_YtL0Id=
h5ORHcQtC-assITrXqoey-0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41819861 41679754 41079582 39909464 38889407=20
            38449410 38259486 38689589 39739781 40300058=20
            40950104 41380049 41729966=20

=3D =3D =3D
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