Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1797
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 06:35:10

ACUS11 KWNS 310635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310634=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-310830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...Nebraska...Far Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310634Z - 310830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat is expected to continue
over the next couple of hours from central Nebraska into far
northern Kansas. The severe threat should remain marginal and
weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Hastings shows an
MCS across central Nebraska. The MCS is moving southeastward along
an axis of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The MCS is being
supported by shortwave trough embedded within northwesterly
mid-level flow. A low-level jet over western Kansas may also help
the MCS to persist for several more hours, as the cluster of strong
storms moves across southern Nebraska, and possibly into far
northern Kansas. Although the severe threat should remain isolated,
a few damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the
stronger cells.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 07/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5gV5ssJcHZ2kxPty-OCl6XUB7tMniUT-F_4iDY6QS0X985-M5L0UQm_DL_mxpwUf7GA4v_E-8=
ySIoYayry69zK5MLgQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39809826 40239790 40869795 41469847 41829895 42289975
            42370032 42210074 41750143 41380166 40780125 40270059
            39779971 39629885 39809826=20


=3D =3D =3D
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