Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1796
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 05:54:13

ACUS11 KWNS 310554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310553=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-310800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...Far Southern Missouri...Arkansas...Northwest
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...576...

Valid 310553Z - 310800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575, 576
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to continue over the next
few hours, developing southeastward into parts of central and
eastern Arkansas. A new weather watch will be needed soon ahead of
the existing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Little Rock shows
a well-developed bowing MCS near the Arkansas-Missouri state line.
The MCS is being supported by a shortwave trough embedded in
northwest mid-level flow, evident on water vapor imagery. The MCS
will continue to move southeastward at 40 to 50 knots along the
northeastward edge of a corridor of moderate to strong instability,
where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
In addition, surface dewpoints along the track of the MCS are in the
mid to upper 70s F. The environment should support a wind-damage
threat that will likely continue along the leading edge of the
bowing line segment. The wind-damage threat is expected to develop
into central and eastern Arkansas, and may also affect parts of
northwest Mississippi later tonight.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 07/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6JWP6YRO85y-q6bmAsabN_9QSf83M0sxTYSip5cnqCuh1Z-Wy1FqXbob_yAaJOnAFGPNkDIrM=
9SFwbMOsgTzlvPcaqw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36839200 37089231 37079269 36859278 36339298 36149343
            36039376 35729375 35219345 34329256 33839188 33639119
            33949048 34419029 35119049 36839200=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.