Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 05:29:41 ACUS02 KWNS 310529 SWODY2 SPC AC 310528 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts and hail are possible on Tuesday across parts of the central High Plains, and over eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ....ND/MN... An upper ridge will be oriented over the northern Plains on Tuesday. Northwesterly mid/upper level flow around 35-50 kt will be oriented over the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to shift east near the international border through evening. At the surface, a weak front will develop east across ND into northern MN. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain 60s F surface dewpoints and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Effective shear greater than 30 kt will support organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and modest low-level winds suggest strong outflow is possible. Marginal hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused to the north of the region, potentially limiting storm coverage and precluding higher severe probabilities at this time. ....Central High Plains... Convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate through the upper ridge oriented over the High Plains Tuesday afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak, but east/southerly low-level flow will spread low 60s F surface dewpoints westward toward the I-25 corridor in CO/WY. This will foster relatively narrow corridor of moderate destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain and spread eastward through the evening. Effective shear near 25 kt may support stronger updrafts long enough for storms to produce small hail near and just east of the I-25 corridor. Otherwise, strong outflow winds also will be possible. ....Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the area during the morning. It is unclear how convective potential later in the day/evening may be impacted by this activity. Forecast guidance varies, but at this time, it appears that outflow and suppressed heating from morning convection may limit thunderstorm activity later in the day/evening, tempering severe potential on Tuesday. However, if morning convection is less than forecast, some severe potential could develop within persistent northwest-flow regime. ...Leitman.. 07/31/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .